It is almost time to rumble. This is the first race I am going in to with no real idea of how I will perform. For me this race is a B Race to test out my pacing and more importantly my nutrition for B2B Full in just over a month.
Because my training has gone as well as planned, I dont know what I am capable of right now. I think I have a decent chance of a PR, but I really dont know.
I have three goals in mind at this point
1. My primary goal is to finish feeling good about my status for B2B.
2. My reasonably achievable goal is to PR. Last year at the SC half, I did a 6:39 with a really bad run
3. My Pie-in-the-sky "goal" is sub-6. The stars would truly have to align for this to happen and the race would have to go flawless.
I plugged the numbers based on last years race and where my training is/was to try and come up with an idea of where I stand going into this.
Swim: At South Carolina I swam 37:15. I was in about the same shape swimming last year as I am now. That was a lake swim, this one is down stream. Depending on the current, I am thinking I can go at least under 35 minutes, maybe even faster if I pace it right.
Bike: Last year 3 hrs (18.6 mph). This is my biggest question mark. I have put much more time on the bike this year, but my emphasis has been on longer/slower rides. I have averaged around 15-16 mph. I spent alot more time on the trainer last year and only did one long ride outside where I do all my long rides this year. That ride I averaged over 17 mph. My long rides are primarily flat. This is a rolling course similar to S.C. Given that, I have a good feeling I can average at least 17mph which would put me in around 3:15
Run: Last year: 2:57:05 (13:31/mile) When I got off the bike at S.C. my back was seriously jacked up. I was so tight I was afraid if I bent over, I wouldnt get back up. I had to walk most of the course and, it was rolling hills. Given that this course is flat and I have been doing core work and using my trigger point kit, I dont expect this to be a problem. Of course, some really bad roads on the bike could mess things up for the run. Most of my long runs have averaged around 12 min/mi including the walk breaks every mile. I havent decided if/how often I walk, I will base it on how I feel. I am thinking I can average 11:30 per mile, if not better. That would bring me in around 2:30
With transitions under 3 minutes, this would put me in around 6:15-6:20. I would be very happy wit this. I figured to break six hours, I would have to swim in under 30 (1:30/100m), Bike around 3 hr (18-19mph) and run around 2:20 (10:45/mile). On paper it doesnt seem entirley out of reach, but as I was typing this, another iportant thing came to mind. For me to come close to this pie in the sky goal, I would have to race all out. I dont think I can afford to race this all out as I need to recover as quickly as possible so I can resume training to B2B. Because of this, I really need to keep my intensity under control so as to not overwork myself. I plan on an ice bath post race and will be wearing my new Invigorator socks that I was sent to review.
Well, I must get on the floor and stretch out my tight muscles. I havent trained at all this week due to some GI Issues. I am gonna get in the pool in the AM to test my goggles and try and get an idea of what kinda pace I can handle with no effort. I might even run a mile or two to stretch out the legs.
For those who might be following on the ironman website, my full name is Kevin Tierney